Clijsters, Venus win U.S. openers

Tennis Betting Lines

08/30/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning champion Kim Clijsters and Venus Williams were both straight-set opening-round winners Monday at the U.S. Open.

The second-seeded former world No. 1 Clijsters got past Hungarian Greta Arn 6-0, 7-5 at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.

Clijsters steamrolled Arn in 18 minutes in the bagel first set, but the Belgian then fell behind 0-4 in the second before rebounding to avoid a three- set afternoon. Clijsters won seven of the last eight games to advance and capture her 26th straight first-round match at a major.

"I'm happy with the way I served, Clijsters said. "That's obviously been a stroke that I've been paying a bit more attention to during my practicing the past few weeks. Today I felt like I was hitting the ball well."

The 27-year-old Clijsters is seeking her third U.S. Open championship, She beat Dane Caroline Wozniacki in last year's finale here and has now won her last 15 matches in Flushing. She also titled here in 2005 and skipped the 2006-08 editions due to either injury or retirement. Clijsters came out of retirement last summer and captured the U.S. Open in only her third tournament back.

Clijsters, who was also the U.S. Open runner-up in 2003, will meet Aussie Sally Peers in the second round in New York.

The third-seeded Williams, meanwhile, was a 6-4, 6-1 winner over Italian Roberta Vinci. The American fired 10 aces and won 83 percent of first-serve points.

Williams, 30, is also after her third career U.S. Open title. She won this event in 2000 and 2001, but bowed out in the fourth round last year and hasn't reached the semifinals since 2007. The former world No. 1 will face Canadian Rebecca Marino in the second round.

Fifth-seeded French Open runner-up Samantha Stosur fought back to beat Russian Elena Vesnina 3-6, 7-6 (7-2), 6-1, while sixth-seeded French Open champion Francesca Schiavone cruised with a 6-1, 6-0 dismantling of Japan's Ayumi Morita and former U.S. Open runner-up Elena Dementieva drubbed Belarusian Olga Govortsova 6-1, 6-2. Schiavone upset Stosur in June's Roland Garros finale. Dementieva reached the U.S. Open final in 2004.

Belarus' Victoria Azarenka, seeded 10th, got into the second round with a 6-0, 5-7, 6-1 victory over Romanian Monica Niculescu. Former Wimbledon runner-up Marion Bartoli, seeded 13th at this particular fortnight, moved on with a 6-3, 6-2 victory over Romanian Edina Gallovits.

Sixteenth-seeded Israeli Shahar Peer handled Croat Jelena Kostanic Tosic 6-4, 7-5, while 19th-seeded Italian Flavia Pennetta cruised past American Irina Falconi, 6-2, 6-1. Pennetta reached the U.S. Open quarterfinals in 2008 and 2009.

Russian Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, seeded 20th, doused German Kristina Barrois 6-4, 6-1 and 21st-seeded Zheng Jie of China straight-setted Timea Bacsinszky in double-tiebreak fashion, 7-6 (7-0), 7-6 (7-1).

The 24th seed, Slovakian Daniela Hantuchova, humbled struggling former top- ranked star Dinara Safina 6-3, 6-4. The three-time major runner-up Safina, of Russia, was the top seed here a year ago, but has plummeted in the rankings ever since, mostly due to problems with a back injury.

Another former world No. 1, Serbian Ana Ivanovic, took an easy 6-3, 6-2 win over Ekaterina Makarova. Ivanovic, the 2008 French Open champion, had lost in the first round at last year's U.S. Open.

Other seeded victors on Day 1 were No. 27 Czech Petra Kvitova, No. 28 Russian Alisa Kleybanova, No. 29 Ukrainian Alona Bondarenko and No. 32 Bulgarian Tsvetana Pironkova, who was a surprise Wimbledon semifinalist last month.

Last year's U.S. Open darling, American Melanie Oudin, advanced with a 6-3, 6-0 throttling of Ukrainian Olga Savchuk. The teenage Oudin reached the quarterfinals here a year ago, including huge upset victories over the two- time Grand Slam runner-up Dementieva and former U.S. Open champ Maria Sharapova.

Oudin was first up at Arthur Ashe Stadium on Day 1.

"It's a real honor to get to start the U.S. Open off on Ashe, first match." the 18-year-old Oudin said. "I thought it was pretty cool. I didn't expect that."

Additional Monday wins came for the aforementioned Peers and Marino, Hungarian Agnes Szavay, Frenchwomen Virginie Razzano and Pauline Parmentier, India's Sania Mirza, Austrian Sybille Bammer, Aussie Anastasia Rodionova, Italians Sara Errani and Maria Elena Camerin, Brit Elena Baltacha, Luxembourg's Mandy Minella, Argentine Gisela Dulko, and American Vania King.

The 2010 U.S. Open champion will earn at least $1.7 million.

Wwcdnow Tennis Betting News

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American Idol Betting Odds: Season 6  

The online gambling websites are in the process of deciphering each American Idol contestant and his or her chances of winning Season 6 to come up with the early American Idol betting lines.

Tim Dalton of MySportsbook.com has been locked away in a soundproof room coming up with all the latest tallies, we are told. "American Idol has become one of the most significant betting events of the year," claims Jack Black of MySportsbook.com.  "Last year, millions were bet during the season across the globe, not just in America.

It's tough early on since we really do not have a glimpse as to how well each of these individuals will perform solo on a week-to-week basis.  It's like Week 1 of the NFL.  Pre-season means nada!

We do know the 24 finalists however.

Sanjaya Malakar is the young man whose sister failed to make it into the Top 24.  He's very low key but - unless he totally flubs - will probably win over the young girlie vote for a few weeks anyway.  He's too young to go all the way, according to Payton O'Brien. 

Brandon Rogers - Who?

Phil Stacy is the military guy who missed his daughter's birth because of the Memphis audition.  He should go a good distance.

Chris Sligh - He's got the humor and in many ways he's the Anti-American Idol much like last year's winner Taylor Hicks was.  And this is why he'll probably get pretty far in this competition.  He's chubby, white with a big curly afro....but more importantly, a great voice!  People love "real", not "real cute" to go all the way. 

"Blake Lewis should go far because of his uniqueness and looks.  He's the boy next store with a twist - he beat boxes.  But on top of this, he's a great singer, and I adore him," Payton O'Brien relayed.

A talented beat-boxer Blake Lewis was a hit during the group sing in Hollywood but Simon explained that this is a singing contest just before he told him he was “in.”

Paul Kim has caught our own roving reporter, Jenny Woo's eyes. 

"I love the fact that there is a Korean American on the show and he is bound to get more Asians tuning into the show," Woo said from her Miami Beach estate.  "There has never been a major presence of Asian-Americans on American Idol in the past.  He's a hottie with a nice voice so that should help to take him far.  Expect heavy betting action from the Asian community."

Sundance Head - He's not perfect, but he's got the personality that will take him through a few weeks, plus he's got the lineage (son of Roy Head - whose 1965 single, "Treat Her Right," hit No. 5 in the charts) 

And the others:

Rudy Cardinas
AJ Tabaldo - the 5th time is the charm
Nicolas Pedro
Chris Richardson
Jared Cotter

The girls

"Melinda Doolittle has one of the best voices," says MySportsbook.com Reporter and an acclaimed dancer in her own right, Destiney Lewis.  "It is great to see a back up singer step out like she has.  The girl needs to gain more confidence but that can also be a positive.  I think she will go far."

Alena Alexander - Those tears (she never seems to stop bawling) should get her far.

"Single mom Lakisha Jones I suspect will be a pretty big favorite entering Week 1 of the competition," says Destiny Williams.  Jones is an excellent singer and down to earth.  "She'll have a wide appeal," echoed O'Brien.

Nicole Trellis - Seems to exert confidence.

Amy Krebs - a powerful singer.

Antonella Barba
Gina Glocksen
Hailey Scanardo
Jordan Sparks
Stephanie Edwards
Leslie Hunt
Sabrina Sloan

MySportsbook.com is offering a 20% signup bonus with an initial deposit (i.e. open your American Idol betting account with $300, receive another $60 in which to bet with). 

Last two contestants will be?

1 Male/1 Female +100 (a $10 bet pays $10 plus your initial $10)

2 Males +170 (a $10 bet pays $17 plus your initial $17)

2 Females +130 (a $10 bet pays $13 plus your initial $10)

MySportsbook.com is an online sportsbook accepts Visa Credit Cards and online sportsbook accepts Mastercard Credit Cards for easy American Idol betting lines. 

How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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